The impact of the pandemic on the nation\u2019s economy will be a key factor in retail sales during the 2021 holiday season, but the National Retail Federation (NRF) is nonetheless confident in its forecast for record growth, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThere are several factors coming together to have a major impact on the holiday outlook, but household fundamentals are a bright spot in the uncertain present,\u201d Kleinhenz said. \u201cConsumers are in a very favourable position going into the last months of the year and are spending because they can.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kleinhenz\u2019s remarks came in the November issue of NRF\u2019s Monthly Economic Review<\/em>, which expanded on the reasoning behind NRF\u2019s forecast last week that 2021 holiday retail sales during November and December will grow between 8.5% and 10.5% over 2020 to a total between $843.4 billion and $859 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A \u201csavings buffer\u201d of about $2.5 trillion accumulated by consumers who have largely stayed home rather than dining out or traveling during the pandemic has \u201csupercharged\u201d spending. In the meantime, income is growing in the form of more jobs, more hours and higher wages reflecting businesses\u2019 competition for workers during the current labour shortage. Household wealth hit another record high during the second quarter (the latest data available) and has boosted consumer confidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Kleinhenz said the strong growth in income and \u201cstockpiled savings\u201d should help spending overcome inflation that has been driven both by consumer demand and supply chain disruptions. The challenge when \u2013 and if \u2013 sales begin to fall will be whether the drop is caused by weaker demand or reduced product availability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Kleinhenz said higher gasoline prices and higher energy costs for home heating will divert some money that could otherwise go to retail sales, especially with weather forecasters saying a La Ni\u00f1a pattern will likely bring cold weather this winter. Nonetheless, a La Ni\u00f1a has coincided with stronger retail sales in the past.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The impact of the pandemic on the nation\u2019s economy will be a key factor in retail sales during the 2021 holiday season, but the National Retail Federation (NRF) is nonetheless confident in its forecast for record growth, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. \u201cThere are several factors coming together to have a major impact on…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12489,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[83],"tags":[],"thb-sponsors":[],"class_list":["post-12488","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bulletin"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n