US economic growth has slowed, but it still isn\u2019t clear if the nation is in a recession, National Retail Federation (NRF) Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cAs we come to the end of the summer, economic indicators are signalling an unsteady US expansion in the face of several headwinds,\u201d Kleinhenz said, noting ongoing inflation, Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, the volatile stock market and other issues. \u201cThese factors are all contributing to the debate on whether the economy is already in a recession, but key indicators disagree on whether we are there yet.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cAll eyes remain on the consumer and what is happening in retail is very important,\u201d Kleinhenz said. \u201cWhile consumers have become more cautious and cooled their spending in the first half of 2022, households continue to spend and are contending with inflation by using credit cards more, saving less and drawing on savings built up during the pandemic. Consumer stamina will be the big question going forward.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kleinhenz\u2019s remarks came in the September issue of NRF\u2019s Monthly Economic Review, which cited conflicting data on whether the US economy grew or shrank during the first half of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Gross domestic product fell by 1.6% year over year in the first quarter and another 0.6% in the second quarter, according to the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis. While not the official definition, two consecutive quarterly declines in GDP typically mark a recession. But a less-publicised measure of the economy \u2013 gross domestic income (GDI) \u2013 grew 1.8% in the first quarter and 1.4% in the second quarter, providing a sharp contrast to the decline in GDP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While both numbers should theoretically be identical, GDI is reported about a month later than GDP in order to include more recent and more detailed data, including profits from all corporations. \u201cSince there is a large difference between estimates of GDP and GDI, did the economy expand in the first half of 2022 or did it contract?\u201d Kleinhenz asked. \u201cThat is difficult to determine, but we will likely have a better idea at the end of September.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
US economic growth has slowed, but it still isn\u2019t clear if the nation is in a recession, National Retail Federation (NRF) Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. \u201cAs we come to the end of the summer, economic indicators are signalling an unsteady US expansion in the face of several headwinds,\u201d Kleinhenz said, noting ongoing inflation, Federal…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16860,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[83],"tags":[],"thb-sponsors":[],"class_list":["post-16859","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bulletin"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n