{"id":29411,"date":"2025-01-17T11:11:47","date_gmt":"2025-01-17T05:41:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gjepc.org\/solitaire\/?p=29411"},"modified":"2025-01-23T16:08:50","modified_gmt":"2025-01-23T10:38:50","slug":"india-could-singlehandedly-drive-2-cagr-in-global-diamond-jewellery-demand-through-the-next-decade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gjepc.org\/solitaire\/india-could-singlehandedly-drive-2-cagr-in-global-diamond-jewellery-demand-through-the-next-decade\/","title":{"rendered":"India Could Singlehandedly Drive 2% CAGR in Global Diamond Jewellery Demand Through the Next Decade"},"content":{"rendered":"

With aggressive retail expansion and increasing diamond adoption, India is poised to shape the global trajectory of diamond jewellery demand in the decade ahead, reports US-based diamond analyst Paul Zimnisky<\/strong>.<\/em><\/p>\n

In 2024, India was a one of the few bright spots in the diamond jewellery industry with the consumer market delivering sales growth in a low-double-digit percentage, according to Paul Zimnisky estimates. On the contrary, diamond sales in the U.S. were down an estimated low-single-digit percentage, while sales in China were down much steeper, i.e. a mid-double-digit percentage.<\/p>\n

Consequently, India has ostensibly eclipsed China as the diamond jewellery industry\u2019s second largest consuming market \u2013 for the moment at least. For instance, in the years prior to the pandemic, China\u2019s share of the global diamond jewellery market ranged at an estimated 12-18%, while India stood at around 5-8% \u2013 today, it is estimated that India sits just above China with a share of about 10-12%.<\/p>\n

A lot of India\u2019s top-line sales growth in recent years has been led by an aggressive store expansion strategy driven by the industry\u2019s largest corporate jewellers who are targeting smaller but growing markets in the country \u2013 similar to the strategy employed by Chinese jewellers over the last decade.<\/p>\n

For instance, Titan, which operates jewellers Tanishq, Zoya and CaratLane, is aiming for over one thousand jewellery stores by the fiscal year ending March 2025 which would be up from about 850 a year ago and 650 two years ago.<\/p>\n

While diamonds have historically represented a much smaller share of fine jewellery sales in India compared to Western markets, i.e. 10-20% versus 50%, the market is positioned for growth.<\/p>\n

In a December interview with The Hindu<\/em>, the CEO of Tanishq, Ajoy Chawla said, said \u201cdespite all the work in the last several decades, the penetration of diamonds (in India) has remained limited\u2026while gold has achieved 100% penetration.\u201d However, Chawla said added that today there is \u201cgood double-digit\u201d growth in diamond sales in India, noting that the company forecasts total diamond jewellery sales in India to \u201cgrow to almost $20-$22 billion in the next 7-8 years.\u201d<\/p>\n

If that forecast comes to fruition, the boost from India alone could translate to 2% compound annual growth for global diamond jewellery demand through early next decade, all else equal, according to Paul Zimnisky analysis.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Paul Zimnisky<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

As it stands, Titan only offers natural diamonds at it stores with the company regularly noting that lab-grown diamonds (LGDs) do not \u201cresonate\u201d with its customers the way they do in Western markets like the U.S. \u2013 if anything, management has said that the topic typically only comes up when consumers want assurance that the diamonds they are buying are natural.<\/p>\n

That said, Titan management has acknowledged that LGD are \u201ca very big development in the industry\u2026 (and thus should be taken) seriously.\u201d Back in 2022, the company made a private $20 million investment in U.S. digitally native LGD retailer Clean Origin. At the time, the company explained that the investment was a way to \u201cdip (its) feet in the pool.\u201d However, in 2024 Titan took a material impairment on the investment.<\/p>\n

In just recent days, De Beers announced a collaboration with the GJEPC to form the Indian Natural Diamond Retailer Alliance. The aim of the partnership is to support independent retailers in India with natural diamond marketing and selling tools. A De Beers spokesperson said, \u201cIndia’s diamond growth story is quite remarkable\u2026with its vibrant economy, growing young population and large number of leading diamond businesses, India still holds a wealth of untapped potential.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

Paul Zimnisky, CFA is an independent diamond industry analyst and consultant based in the New York metro area. For regular in-depth analysis and forecasts of the diamond industry please consider subscribing to his <\/em>State of the Diamond Market<\/em><\/a>, a leading monthly industry report; an index of previous editions can be found <\/em>here<\/em><\/a>. Also, listen to the <\/em>Paul Zimnisky Diamond Analytics Podcast<\/em><\/a> on Spotify or Apple Podcasts for exclusive full-length conversations with special guests from the gem and jewellery industry. Paul is a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business with a B.S. in finance and he is a CFA charterholder. He can be followed on X <\/em>@paulzimnisky<\/em><\/a> and on YouTube <\/em>@paulzimnisky<\/em><\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

Paul will be speaking at European jewellery show INHORGENTA on February 22 in Munich, Germany. He will also be in Milan and Rome, Italy in late-February and can be contacted at <\/em>paul@paulzimnisky.com<\/em><\/a> to arrange a meeting. <\/em><\/p>\n

Disclosure: At the time of writing Paul Zimnisky held a long equity position in Brilliant Earth Group and Newmont Corp. Paul is an independent board member of Lipari Diamond Mines, a privately-held Canadian company with an active mine in Brazil and a development-stage asset in Angola. Please read full disclosure at <\/em>www.paulzimnisky.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With aggressive retail expansion and increasing diamond adoption, India is poised to shape the global trajectory of diamond jewellery demand in the decade ahead, reports US-based diamond analyst Paul Zimnisky. 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