{"id":33696,"date":"2025-10-16T10:38:27","date_gmt":"2025-10-16T05:08:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gjepc.org\/solitaire\/?p=33696"},"modified":"2025-10-16T10:41:17","modified_gmt":"2025-10-16T05:11:17","slug":"gold-hits-us4000-oz-trend-or-turning-point","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gjepc.org\/solitaire\/gold-hits-us4000-oz-trend-or-turning-point\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold hits US$4,000\/oz – trend or turning point?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Gold opens its US$4,000\/oz chapter<\/h3>\n

Gold reached another historic milestone on 8 October 2025 as it broke through US$4,000\/oz. And while it finished the week below the record high, it\u2019s en route to mark its strongest performance in a calendar year since 1979 (Chart 1<\/strong>).<\/p>\n

The comparison to gold\u2019s move in the late 70\u2019s has generated a lot of buzz as investors assess whether this most recent leg up is signalling a continuation of the trend or the start of a reversal.<\/p>\n

Indeed, gold has been gaining ground fast. But it\u2019s important to put things into perspective.<\/p>\n

As we noted when\u00a0gold surpassed US$3,000\/oz<\/a>, round-number milestones carry more psychological and technical weight than fundamental meaning. And it\u2019s not just gold\u2019s performance in a single year, but the length and underlying drivers of a bull run that should be the centre of attention. For example, gold\u2019s recent run remains below the average duration and magnitude of previous bull runs (Chart 2<\/strong>).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Chart 1: Gold\u2019s performance in 2025 has been compared to 1979 from an annual perspective\u2026 but gold price rallies have varied in duration and magnitude driven by the underlying macro environment<\/h3>\n

Annual gold return in nominal terms*<\/p>\n

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*Data as of 9 October 2025. Based on the LBMA Gold Price PM.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Chart 2: Gold is only 735 days into this rally \u2013 previous major rallies have lasted on average 1,062 days<\/h3>\n

Percentage return from trough to peak during gold price rallies*<\/p>\n

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*Data as of 9 October 2025. Based on the LBMA Gold Price PM.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

What is driving gold’s move?<\/h3>\n

Our analysis suggests that this year\u2019s rally has been fuelled by increased investment demand,\u00a0led by the West<\/a>, as investors worldwide seek safe haven amid geopolitical tensions, dollar weakness, expectations of further Fed cuts, and fears of an equity market correction. Continued central bank buying has helped too, both in driving offtake but also cementing the positive narrative.<\/p>\n

The pace at which the gold price has increased is notable<\/strong>, given gold climbed from US$3,500\/oz to US$4,000\/oz in just 36 days, compared to an average of 1,036 days between prior US$500\/oz incremental milestones (Table 3<\/strong>).\u00a0Yet this latest move was just 14% in relative terms<\/strong>, equating to an average of 50bps per day, a similar figure to the 2011 run up.<\/p>\n

Rising prices have undoubtedly led to increased investor interest, further accelerating momentum. This is notable in gold ETF flows, which added US$21bn since the end of August to bring the y-t-d total to US$67bn.1<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n

That leaves many asking: how much room is left to run?<\/p>\n

While flows have been strong and assets under management keep climbing, holdings remain below previous highs. Gold ETFs have added 638t this year, bringing total holdings to 3,857t \u2013 2% below their November 2020 peak of 3,929t. In addition, gold ETFs only added 128t in the last US$500\/oz increase. And COMEX net longs are also below levels seen in prior all-time highs (Table 1<\/strong>).<\/p>\n

Table 1: Growth in gold ETFs and futures net longs remain in line with prior US$500\/oz tranche increases<\/h3>\n
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*Global gold ETF holdings as of 8 October 2025, and COMEX net longs (non-commercial and non reportable combined positions) data is as of 23 September 2025.
Source: Bloomberg, Company Filings, CFTC, World Gold Council<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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Further, there have been two prolonged gold ETF \u2018bull runs\u2019 since their appearance in 2003, lasting 221 and 253 weeks and adding 1,823t and 2,341t, respectively (Chart 3<\/strong>).<\/p>\n

The most recent run for gold ETFs began in May 2024: 74 weeks in, holdings are up 788t and net longs have increased by just 116t. Compared to the averages of prior runs, this represents only 30%\u201340% of the total.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Chart 3: We are likely in the early innings of the next accumulation phase<\/h3>\n

Global gold ETF holdings and \u0394 of COMEX net longs in tonnes over prior \u201cBull\u201d and \u201cBear\u201d periods*<\/p>\n

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*Global ETF holdings as of 8 October 2025, and COMEX net longs (Non-Commercial + Non-Reportable combined positions) data as of 23 September 2025. The \u2018+\/-\u2019 tonnage (bolded in purple) in each shaded region represents the amount of tonnage added or removed from the physical holdings of global gold-backed ETFs. The \u2018\u0394\u2019 in tonnage (bolded in blue) in each shaded region shows the change in COMEX net longs from the start to the end of each period.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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What we are looking out for next\u2026<\/h3>\n

As gold tests whether US$4,000\/oz is a key level of support or resistance, it could face several tactical challenges. Short-term dynamics could introduce volatility and potential profit taking. For example:<\/p>\n