{"id":35287,"date":"2026-02-17T11:13:01","date_gmt":"2026-02-17T05:43:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gjepc.org\/solitaire\/?p=35287"},"modified":"2026-02-18T08:43:36","modified_gmt":"2026-02-18T03:13:36","slug":"natural-diamond-production-to-remain-at-multi-decade-lows-in-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gjepc.org\/solitaire\/natural-diamond-production-to-remain-at-multi-decade-lows-in-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Natural Diamond Production to Remain at Multi-decade Lows in 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

Natural diamond p<\/span>roducers are prioritising market stability over volume growth, keeping output tightly managed as the sector moves through a gradual recovery phase<\/span>,\u00a0<\/span>notes\u00a0<\/span>diamond analyst\u00a0<\/span><\/span>Paul\u00a0<\/span>Zimnisky<\/span><\/span>.<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

In early-February, De Beers\u2019 parent Anglo American reiterated an approach to \u201calign (diamond) output with prevailing demand\u201d\u00a0<\/span>and\u00a0<\/span>c<\/span>onsequently<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>cut 2026 production guidance to\u00a0<\/span>rather wide<\/span>\u00a0range of 21 to 26 million carats, down from\u00a0<\/span>a previous<\/span>\u00a026 to 29 million<\/span>\u00a0carats<\/span>.\u00a0<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The move follows a similar adjustment to early last year when Anglo cut De Beers\u2019\u00a02025 guidance to 20 to 23 million carats, significantly down from the\u00a0previous\u00a0range of 30\u00a0to\u00a033 million\u00a0carats.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The latest development is indicative of a natural diamond market that is still jockeying for a recovery following three\u00a0consecutive\u00a0years of recession.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/span><\/p>\n

Globally, natural diamond supply was estimated at just over 100 million carats last year,\u00a0according to Paul\u00a0Zimnisky\u00a0estimates,\u00a0marking the lowest annual output since 1992. In 2026, supply is forecast to just moderately rebound to around 105 million carats. For context, this is down from over 150 million as recently as nine years ago (<\/span>see above figure<\/span><\/i>).\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

While the current\u00a0aggressive\u00a0paring of supply is due in part to legacy mines reaching depletion\u00a0(production that is not being replaced with new sources), the\u00a0aforementioned De Beers\u00a0\u201csupply control\u201d strategy is\u00a0unequivocally\u00a0the most\u00a0poignant\u00a0factor. It is\u00a0estimated\u00a0that\u00a0De Beers is currently producing at as much as 35% under capacity.\u00a0Russia\u2019s ALROSA, the world\u2019s largest producer by volume, is also\u00a0presumably\u00a0producing at below capacity,\u00a0albeit at a more moderate\u00a015%, according to Paul\u00a0Zimnisky\u00a0estimates.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This mechanism means that as natural diamond demand returns, over 10 million carats of\u00a0additional\u00a0production can theoretically be turned back on in\u00a0relatively short\u00a0order. Longer\u00a0term, higher prices could economically drive green-\u00a0or brownfields development which could take production somewhere around the midpoint of current levels and\u00a0the highs of 2017.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

De Beers and ALROSA currently account for about half of global production by volume (taking into account\u00a0the curtailed output) with the balance coming from Angola\u2019s\u00a0Endiama, independent producers and less-commercial alluvial operations,\u00a0which only represent a single-digit percentage of global supply.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Why\u00a0almost every\u00a0other\u00a0major\u00a0producer has recently cut supply,\u00a0Endiama\u00a0has steadily grown output to over 15 million carats\u00a0in 2025\u00a0\u2013\u00a0double the level from just five years ago.\u00a0The company, which is primarily a state-owned entity,\u00a0operates\u00a0two of the largest diamond mines in the world: Catoca and\u00a0Luele. A production ramp-up in the latter has been the primary driver of its supply growth.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Supply by independent producers has notably fallen off in recent years. For example,\u00a0Petra Diamonds has seen its\u00a0output fall by some 25% to under 3 million carats\u00a0relative\u00a0to five years ago as its two key assets, Cullinan and\u00a0Finsch, become more difficult and costly to\u00a0operate\u00a0with age.\u00a0Burgundy Diamond\u2019s Ekati mine has seen its production halve\u00a0to under 3 million carats in recent years as the mine requires costly capex to\u00a0maintain\u00a0full operations \u2013conditions which have been squeezed by the softer diamond market.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Finally, Rio Tinto, one of the world\u2019s premier diversified miners, is currently\u00a0in the process of closing\u00a0Diavik\u00a0due to economic depletion\u00a0\u2013\u00a0its only\u00a0remaining\u00a0producing\u00a0diamond\u00a0mine. Daivik produced upwards of 7 million carats annually as recently as 2019.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Paul\u00a0Zimnisky, CFA is an independent diamond industry analyst and consultant based in the New York metro area. For regular in-depth analysis and forecasts of the diamond industry please consider subscribing to his\u00a0<\/span><\/i>State of the Diamond Market<\/span><\/i><\/a>, a leading monthly industry report; an index of\u00a0previous\u00a0editions can be found\u00a0<\/span><\/i>here<\/span><\/i><\/a>. Also, listen to the\u00a0<\/span><\/i>Paul Zimnisky Diamond Analytics Podcast<\/span><\/i><\/a>\u00a0on Spotify or Apple Podcasts for exclusive full-length conversations with special guests from the gem and\u00a0jewelry\u00a0industry. Paul is a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business with a B.S. in\u00a0finance\u00a0and he is a CFA\u00a0charterholder. He can be followed on X\u00a0<\/span><\/i>@paulzimnisky<\/span><\/i><\/a>\u00a0and on YouTube\u00a0<\/span><\/i>@paulzimnisky<\/span><\/i><\/a>.<\/span><\/i>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Paul will be giving a keynote presentation at the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) Convention in Toronto, Canada on March 2, 2026.<\/span><\/i>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Disclosure:\u00a0At the time of writing Paul\u00a0Zimnisky\u00a0held a long equity position in Brilliant Earth Group and Newmont Corp. Paul is an independent board member of Lipari Mining Ltd, a\u00a0publicly-traded\u00a0Canadian company with an operating diamond mine in Brazil and a development-stage asset in Angola. None of the above constitutes investment advice, please read full disclosure at\u00a0<\/span><\/i>www.paulzimnisky.com<\/span><\/i><\/a>.<\/span><\/i>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Natural diamond producers are prioritising market stability over volume growth, keeping output tightly managed as the sector moves through a gradual recovery phase,\u00a0notes\u00a0diamond analyst\u00a0Paul\u00a0Zimnisky.\u00a0 In early-February, De Beers\u2019 parent Anglo American reiterated an approach to \u201calign (diamond) output with prevailing demand\u201d\u00a0and\u00a0consequently\u00a0cut 2026 production guidance to\u00a0rather wide\u00a0range of 21 to 26 million carats, down from\u00a0a previous\u00a026…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":35288,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[105,79],"tags":[],"thb-sponsors":[],"class_list":["post-35287","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mining","category-viewpoint"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNatural Diamond Production to Remain at Multi-decade Lows in 2026 - 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