{"id":37470,"date":"2026-08-11T13:12:29","date_gmt":"2026-08-11T07:42:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gjepc.org\/solitaire\/?p=37470"},"modified":"2026-08-11T13:12:29","modified_gmt":"2026-08-11T07:42:29","slug":"natural-diamonds-will-emerge-stronger-and-more-valuable-ajesh-mehta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gjepc.org\/solitaire\/natural-diamonds-will-emerge-stronger-and-more-valuable-ajesh-mehta\/","title":{"rendered":"Natural Diamonds Will Emerge Stronger and More Valuable: Ajesh Mehta"},"content":{"rendered":"

In this conversation with Solitaire International, <\/em>Ajesh Mehta<\/strong>, Director, D. Navinchandra Exports Pvt. Ltd. and former Convenor – Diamond Panel, GJEPC, <\/strong>shares his outlook on the natural diamond industry and explains why India will play a defining role in its recovery.<\/em><\/p>\n

The natural diamond industry has been through an extended downturn. What gives you confidence that the market is moving towards recovery?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The industry has already completed much of the correction it needed. Manufacturers have reduced production, polished inventories have come down and jewellery manufacturers have adjusted their purchasing patterns.<\/p>\n

The missing piece was the mining sector. Miners could not control producing rough even as demand slowed due to the rapid rise of lab-grown diamonds. That imbalance created excessive supply throughout the pipeline.<\/p>\n

Today, miners have recognised the need to control production. Several mines have closed, while others have slowed output or moved into care and maintenance. That reduction in supply is essential because natural diamonds derive their value from rarity.<\/p>\n

I believe we are moving towards a healthier market with lower volumes but stronger fundamentals. Prices today are unusually discounted for natural diamonds. As supply comes under control, confidence should gradually return.<\/p>\n

Where are you seeing the strongest demand today?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The strongest demand is clearly in larger natural diamonds, particularly stones above 2 carats and large fancy cuts.<\/p>\n

These purchases are driven by high-net-worth consumers in the US, Europe and parts of Asia who recognise natural diamonds as rare assets. Someone willing to spend $50,000 or $100,000 is unlikely to choose a lab-grown diamond because it does not offer the same long-term value proposition.<\/p>\n

Fancy colours and exceptional larger stones continue to command premium demand because of their rarity.<\/p>\n

The greatest pressure remains in smaller diamonds, where supply is abundant and competition from lab-grown diamonds is most intense.<\/p>\n

How has the decline in smaller diamonds affected manufacturers?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The impact has been significant, especially for smaller goods.<\/p>\n

Many workers in Surat have shifted from polishing natural melee to lab-grown diamonds, so employment has largely adjusted rather than disappeared. However, prices for smaller natural diamonds have fallen sharply because demand has weakened while rough production remained high.<\/p>\n

The challenge today is not that these diamonds are not selling. They are selling, but confidence has disappeared from the trading pipeline.<\/p>\n

Traders suffered heavy losses over the past few years and no longer want to hold inventory. Manufacturers also prefer to minimise stocks because everyone fears that miners may eventually release more small rough into the market.<\/p>\n

That uncertainty is keeping prices under pressure.<\/p>\n

What should mining companies do with their inventories?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The answer is simple: avoid flooding the market.<\/p>\n

If miners continue releasing excessive quantities of small rough, prices will keep falling. It is better to hold back production, generate revenue from larger stones and release smaller goods gradually as demand improves.<\/p>\n

The industry needs disciplined supply management. That is the only sustainable path towards restoring pricing stability.<\/p>\n

Has India’s manufacturing capability changed as demand shifts towards larger diamonds?<\/strong><\/p>\n

India is fully prepared.<\/p>\n

Today, India cuts and polishes almost every category of diamond, including very large stones of 5 or even 10 carats. Indian manufacturers have mastered these skills over the years.<\/p>\n

The bigger challenge is no longer manufacturing capability. It is maintaining a level global playing field, particularly as tariffs and trade barriers become more important.<\/p>\n

Even so, India continues to lead the industry in manufacturing, trading and supply chain capabilities.<\/p>\n

Recycled diamonds are becoming more visible, particularly in the US and China. How significant is this trend?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Recycled diamonds are certainly becoming a larger part of the market.<\/p>\n

In the United States, retailers are taking back older natural diamond jewellery and replacing it with lab-grown jewellery in their stores. Those returned natural diamonds re-enter the pipeline.<\/p>\n

China presents a different situation. Weak diamond demand and sharply higher gold prices have encouraged retailers to melt existing jewellery, recover the gold and sell the diamonds separately at discounted prices.<\/p>\n

That has created another important source of recycled natural diamonds entering the market.<\/p>\n

If China remains weak, where will future growth come from?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The greatest opportunity lies in emerging Asian markets.<\/p>\n

Countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Taiwan still view natural diamonds as aspirational luxury products. Lab-grown diamonds have not significantly penetrated these markets. These countries collectively can offset China\u2019s lost share in natural diamonds.<\/p>\n

Many consumers in these economies are acquiring wealth and want products that signal achievement and status.<\/p>\n

With coordinated generic marketing, these markets could become important drivers of future natural diamond demand.<\/p>\n

South America also offers considerable long-term potential.<\/p>\n

India is now one of the world’s largest diamond jewellery markets. How important will domestic demand become?<\/strong><\/p>\n

India will become increasingly important.<\/p>\n

Indian consumers understand the difference between natural and lab-grown diamonds. They are educated buyers and appreciate that natural diamonds carry rarity and long-term value.<\/p>\n

Lab-grown diamonds will certainly find a place in fashion jewellery and lower-ticket purchases.<\/p>\n

However, when families purchase jewellery for weddings or significant life occasions, natural diamonds continue to carry emotional and financial value.<\/p>\n

Unlike some overseas markets, Indian jewellers have generally avoided displaying natural and lab-grown diamonds side by side in the same store. That distinction has helped preserve consumer confidence.<\/p>\n

Is the industry doing enough to promote natural diamonds in India?<\/strong><\/p>\n

More promotion is always beneficial.<\/p>\n

Celebrity-led campaigns have worked effectively in the past and continue to influence consumer behaviour, particularly beyond the major metropolitan cities.<\/p>\n

The industry should continue investing in education and awareness so consumers clearly understand what distinguishes natural diamonds from lab-grown alternatives.<\/p>\n

Maintaining confidence is essential for long-term demand.<\/p>\n

Looking ahead to the next 4-5 years, how do you see the natural diamond industry evolving?<\/strong><\/p>\n

I believe the industry will become smaller but healthier.<\/p>\n

There will be lower production, lower mining volumes and a more disciplined supply chain. Most importantly, confidence should return.<\/p>\n

Businesses will be more profitable because prices will reflect genuine scarcity rather than excess inventory.<\/p>\n

I do not believe lab-grown diamonds will replace natural diamonds completely. There will always be consumers who recognise the rarity, authenticity and enduring value of natural diamonds.<\/p>\n

That is why I remain optimistic about the long-term future of the natural diamond industry.<\/p>\n

Five Takeaways<\/strong><\/p>\n