{"id":37727,"date":"2026-08-17T11:00:52","date_gmt":"2026-08-17T05:30:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gjepc.org\/solitaire\/?p=37727"},"modified":"2026-08-17T11:03:39","modified_gmt":"2026-08-17T05:33:39","slug":"the-supply-of-in-demand-3ct-goods-is-falling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gjepc.org\/solitaire\/the-supply-of-in-demand-3ct-goods-is-falling\/","title":{"rendered":"The Supply of In-Demand 3ct+ Goods is Falling"},"content":{"rendered":"

New York-based diamond analyst Paul Zimnisky<\/strong> examines how tightening mine supply is making 3ct+ natural diamonds increasingly scarce, reinforcing rarity as a defining value of the category.<\/em><\/p>\n

While global natural diamond production has been in a precipitous decline since 2017, this year the trend has accelerated with at least five world-class mines having either suspended production or outright shuttered as diamond prices wane and operating costs wax. Global output is estimated to come off another 10% in 2026, bringing supply to around 90 million carats, the lowest levels since the 1980\u2019s according to Paul Zimnisky data.<\/p>\n

While a rout in smaller and medium-sized goods has skewed down average prices for miners, the consequence has been a steep supply cut in the total run-of-mine, i.e. including the most desirable goods which have maintained prices amidst healthy demand.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

For instance, the supply of rough that polishes into 3-carat-plus fancy shapes, especially elongated varieties, has significantly declined in recent years. Given that these goods are made into what have been some of the hottest categories in the diamond industry over the last 18 months, shortages have been reported. At the moment, it can be difficult to source properly manufactured 2- to 4-carat long marquises, cushions, radiants and ovals. In instances, these categories are sold out.<\/p>\n

To generally quantify the availability of larger goods: pre-pandemic, the supply of natural diamonds that cut into at least 3-carat stones was estimated to be around 1.4 million carats in the rough. This equates to approximately 0.6 million carats polished, or around 175,000 individual stones. This year, it is estimated that the supply will drop to under 110,000 individual stones.<\/p>\n

For context, this compares to over a million Rolex watches sold per year and an estimated 40,000 Herm\u00e8s Birkin bags. It\u2019s important to note that neither company provides official production and sales information for these products, but the comparison is reasonable and puts into context how rare large natural diamonds have become.<\/p>\n

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Paul Zimnisky<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Celebrities continue to overwhelmingly choose natural diamonds and in a lot of cases are driving consumer demand for certain fancy shapes and sizes mentioned above.<\/p>\n

Ultimately the industry needs to extend that influence to the entire range of natural goods as miners cannot survive only selling the highest-quality portion of their product mix. I have long contended that the answer is a concerted effort by the entire trade to fully differentiate the way that natural and LGD are marketed and merchandised.<\/p>\n

This includes reinforcement of this concept in the form of visual identification, e.g. via a luxury \u201cmark\u201d or a proprietary cut for natural, as well as consistent case displays, boxes and shopping bags reserved for only natural diamonds. Gem labs should utilise a different methodology (from naturally occurring diamonds) when reporting the technical specs of machine manufactured LGDs.<\/p>\n

Further, the industry should consider limiting the distribution of its product to retailers that truly believe in the ethos of natural diamonds. This would effectively lead to an \u201cauthorised natural diamond retailer\u201d program.<\/p>\n

The natural diamond supply limitations that are currently playing out perfectly support and bolster this concept. Diamonds are what they are because they are not only visually beautiful but also rare and valuable. Some of the trade has seemed to forget this over the last five years.<\/p>\n

Since the beginning of time, humans have been distinctively drawn to rare and valuable precious gems and metals. This has not gone away \u2013 what has eluded the trade is the way that it has positioned its product in the face of temptation from highly-profitable and easy-to-sell LGDs. The problem is, this is probably not sustainable longer term for the diamond miners or the larger fine jewellery industry.<\/p>\n

\n

Paul Zimnisky, CFA is an independent diamond industry analyst and consultant based in the New York metro area. For regular in-depth analysis and forecasts of the diamond industry please consider subscribing to his <\/em>State of the Diamond Market<\/em><\/a>, a leading monthly industry report; an index of previous editions can be found <\/em>here<\/em><\/a>. Also, listen to the <\/em>Paul Zimnisky Diamond Analytics Podcast<\/em><\/a> on Spotify or Apple Podcasts for exclusive full-length conversations with special guests from the gem and jewelry industry. Paul is a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business with a B.S. in finance and he is a CFA charterholder. He can be followed on X <\/em>@paulzimnisky<\/em><\/a> and on YouTube <\/em>@paulzimnisky<\/em><\/a>. Disclosure: At the time of writing Paul Zimnisky held a long equity position in Brilliant Earth Group.<\/em><\/p>\n

Paul will be speaking at the Atlanta Jewelry Show at the Cobb Convention Center in Atlanta, Georgia on August 21, 2026.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

New York-based diamond analyst Paul Zimnisky examines how tightening mine supply is making 3ct+ natural diamonds increasingly scarce, reinforcing rarity as a defining value of the category. While global natural diamond production has been in a precipitous decline since 2017, this year the trend has accelerated with at least five world-class mines having either suspended…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":37728,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[105,79],"tags":[],"thb-sponsors":[],"class_list":["post-37727","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mining","category-viewpoint"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Supply of In-Demand 3ct+ Goods is Falling - Solitaire magazine is a International jewellery magazine - India\u2019s leading B2B gem and jewellery magazine<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow\" \/>\n<meta name=\"googlebot\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"bingbot\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/gjepc.org\/solitaire\/the-supply-of-in-demand-3ct-goods-is-falling\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Supply of In-Demand 3ct+ Goods is Falling - Solitaire magazine is a International jewellery magazine - India\u2019s leading B2B gem and jewellery magazine\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"New York-based diamond analyst Paul Zimnisky examines how tightening mine supply is making 3ct+ natural diamonds increasingly scarce, reinforcing rarity as a defining value of the category. 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