{"id":4718,"date":"2021-03-12T16:12:00","date_gmt":"2021-03-12T10:42:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gjepc.org\/solitaire\/?p=4718"},"modified":"2021-03-12T16:44:45","modified_gmt":"2021-03-12T11:14:45","slug":"chinas-gold-market-in-february-local-gold-price-premium-rose-further-as-gold-consumption-improved","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gjepc.org\/solitaire\/chinas-gold-market-in-february-local-gold-price-premium-rose-further-as-gold-consumption-improved\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s gold market in February: local gold price premium rose further as gold consumption improved"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">February summary<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The LBMA Gold Price AM in US dollars (USD) fell by 4.7% and the Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price PM (SHAUPM) in renminbi (RMB) dropped 4% in the month1<\/li><li>China\u2019s retail consumption rebounded markedly y-o-y during the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday<sup>2<\/sup><\/li><li>While Au(T+D)\u2019s trading volumes tumbled, Chinese gold ETFs gained popularity during the month:<br>&#8211;&nbsp;Au(T+D)\u2019s trading volumes totalled 581 tonnes (t), 148t lower m-o-m and 821t lower y-o-y mainly due to fewer trading days in February<br>&#8211;&nbsp;Chinese gold ETF holdings increased by 8t, reaching 68.6t, the highest ever<\/li><li>Gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) fell on a m-o-m basis due to seasonal reasons and fewer trading days in February<\/li><li>The Shanghai-London gold price spread saw a sizable rise, averaging US$7.3\/oz in the month, US$6.5\/oz higher than in January<sup>3<\/sup><\/li><li>China\u2019s wholesale gold demand could rise in March<\/li><li>The People\u2019s Bank of China gold reserves remained at 1,948t at the end of February, accounting for 3.5% of its total reserves. The Chinese central bank has kept its gold reserves unchanged since September 2019.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Gold prices fell in February<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>With economic indicators, such as US retail sales, and the COVID-19 vaccine roll-out pointing to recovery in key markets, expectations for the global economic recovery and higher inflation rose. This has led to rapidly climbing government bond yields in many markets,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.gold.org\/goldhub\/gold-focus\/2021\/03\/short-term-gold-model-interest-rates-ignite-prices-2021\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">weighing on international gold prices as a result<\/a>. Both the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD and the SHAUPM in RMB dropped last month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Gold prices saw declines in February<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.gold.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2021-03\/ray_chart_1.jpg\" class=\"lazyload\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><br><br>Source: Shanghai Gold Exchange, ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The 2021 CNY holiday witnessed a strong y-o-y rebound in China\u2019s retail consumption<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the Ministry of Commerce, key retailers and catering revenues in China during the 2021 CNY holiday reached RMB821bn, 28.7% higher y-o-y and 4.9% higher than 2019\u2019s CNY week.<sup>4<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">There was a strong y-o-y rebound in the 2021 CNY holiday consumption<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>CNY holiday week&#8217;s key retailers and catering revenues in China<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.gold.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2021-03\/ray_chart_7.jpg\" class=\"lazyload\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><br><br>Source: Ministry of Commerce, World Gold Council<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>While the economic recovery and the containment of the pandemic were key drivers of this retail consumption boom during the festival, the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.chinadaily.com.cn\/a\/202102\/14\/WS60285f24a31024ad0baa8e62_1.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cstay put\u201d initiative<\/a>&nbsp;was another contributor. As mentioned in&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.gold.org\/goldhub\/gold-focus\/2021\/03\/chinese-gold-consumption-booms-during-2021-chinese-new-year-holiday\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">my recent blog<\/a>, the \u201cstay put\u201d drive that encourages migrants in cities to stay for the CNY holiday instead of returning to their hometowns to strengthen the pandemic containment has&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.chinadaily.com.cn\/a\/202102\/19\/WS602fb068a31024ad0baa9cb3.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">boosted large cities\u2019 retail consumption<\/a>.<sup>5<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Au(T+D)\u2019s trading volumes plummeted last month primarily due to fewer trading days in the month<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Nevertheless, the margin-traded contract\u2019s trading volumes in February were the lowest seen during CNY months since 2015. This was because:<sup>6<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>the local gold price extended its weakness from previous months<\/li><li>volatility in the local gold price continued to fall as a lower gold price volatility often means fewer short-term profit opportunities.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Au(T+D)&#8217;s trading volumes fell<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignwide\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.gold.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2021-03\/ray_chart_2.jpg\" class=\"lazyload\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Source: Shanghai Gold Exchange, World Gold Council<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gold.org\/goldhub\/data\/global-gold-backed-etf-holdings-and-flows\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Chinese gold ETF<\/a>&nbsp;total holdings reached 68.6t \u2013 the highest on record \u2013 as of February, 8t higher m-o-m<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>First, last month\u2019s turbulent Chinese equity market was a key factor driving local investors\u2019 gold ETF allocation. While the CSI300 stock index dropped by more than 8% after the CNY holiday, the stock market\u2019s volatility also elevated significantly in February.<sup>7<\/sup>&nbsp;Second, the local gold price dip in the month was seen as a better entry point to the market by many retail investors, spurring further interests in Chinese gold ETFs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Inflows into Chinese gold ETFs were the highest since last April<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignwide\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.gold.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2021-03\/ray_chart_3.jpg\" class=\"lazyload\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><br><br>Source: ETF providers, World Gold Council&nbsp;<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Gold shipped out of the SGE in February totalled 92t, 67t lower m-o-m<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>This was mainly a result of the seasonal patterns in China\u2019s wholesale gold demand around the CNY holiday:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>CNY months usually have fewer working days due to the holiday<\/li><li>the Chinese gold market supply chain tends to stock up ahead of the CNY month, reducing the wholesale gold demand in the following month<\/li><li>some gold products manufacturers do not resume production until after the Spring Lantern Festival<sup>8<\/sup>&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">China&#8217;s wholesale gold demand tends to fall in months CNY holidays occur*<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>M-o-m changes in the SGE&#8217;s gold withdrawals between CNY months and previous months<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignwide\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.gold.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2021-03\/ray_chart_5.jpg\" class=\"lazyload\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><br><br>Source: Shanghai Gold Exchange, World Gold Council<br>*M-o-m changes based on gold withdrawals from the SGE in the month the CNY holiday occurred and the previous month between 2011 and 2021. For instance, the 2021 data was based on the m-o-m change in gold withdrawals between February and January as the 2021 CNY holiday was between 11 February and 17 February. The 10-year average is based on data between 2011 and 2020. For detailed information of past CNY holiday dates, please click&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.chinesenewyears.info\/chinese-new-year-calendar.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a>.<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">China\u2019s wholesale gold demand in February was still 18t below 2020\u2019s CNY month and 30t lower than the 10-year average<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.gold.org\/goldhub\/research\/gold-demand-trends\/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2020\/jewellery\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">China\u2019s gold consumption was hampered<\/a>&nbsp;in 2020. Although the Chinese gold demand witnessed rapid recoveries last year amid the economic improvement, it has not returned to its pre-COVID level. But with the economy continuing to show strength, China\u2019s gold demand could rise further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2021&#8217;s CNY month gold withdrawals were lower than the long-term average*<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold withdrawals from the SGE in CNY months between 2011 and 2021<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignwide\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.gold.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2021-03\/ray_chart_6.jpg\" class=\"lazyload\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><br><br>Source: Shanghai Gold Exchange, World Gold Council<br>*CNY months refer to the months when the CNY holiday occurred. The 10-year average volume is calculated based on data between 2011 and 2020. For detailed information of past CNY holiday dates, please click&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.chinesenewyears.info\/chinese-new-year-calendar.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a>.<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Shanghai-London gold price spread climbed rapidly in February amid improved gold consumption<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>The monthly average of US$7.3\/oz in February was significantly higher than January and edged closer to the 2019 annual average \u2013 before the spread turned negative amid the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This was primarily the result of&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.gold.org\/goldhub\/gold-focus\/2021\/03\/chinese-gold-consumption-booms-during-2021-chinese-new-year-holiday\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">significantly improved gold consumption<\/a>&nbsp;in the month around the CNY holiday week.<sup>9<\/sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gold.org\/goldhub\/research\/market-update\/drivers-of-the-shanghai-london-gold-price-discount\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Our recent analysis<\/a>&nbsp;showed that local gold demand has historically played the key role in driving the spread.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The The Shanghai-London gold price spread rose sharply last month*<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignwide\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.gold.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2021-03\/ray_chart_4.jpg\" class=\"lazyload\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><br><br>Source: Bloomberg, Shanghai Gold Exchange, World Gold Council<br>*SHAUPM vs LBMA Gold Price AM after April 2014; before that, Au9999 vs LBMA Gold Price AM is used. Click&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.gold.org\/goldhub\/data\/local-gold-price-premiumdiscount\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here&nbsp;<\/a>for more.<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">China\u2019s wholesale gold demand is likely to rise in March<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>With retail gold consumption booming in February, gold retailers replenishing need rises. This, in turn, could lead to gold manufacturers withdrawing more gold from the SGE to fulfill retailers\u2019 stock demand. In addition, historical data also suggests that gold withdrawals from the SGE tend to rise in March. Given the possibility of an increase in Chinese wholesale gold demand, the Shanghai-London gold price spread could remain elevated in the next month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Chinese wholesale gold demand tends to rise after the CNY holiday*<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Average monthly gold withdrawals from the SGE between 2011 and 2020<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignwide\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.gold.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2021-03\/ray_chart_8.jpg\" class=\"lazyload\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><br><br>Source: Shanghai Gold Exchange, World Gold Council<br>*Chinese New Year often occurs in late January or early February<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Footnotes<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>1&nbsp;<\/sup>We compare the LBMA Gold Price AM to SHAUPM because the trading windows used to determine them are closer to each other than those for the LBMA Gold Price PM. For more information about Shanghai Gold Benchmark Prices, please visit&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.en.sge.com.cn\/data_BenchmarkPrice\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Shanghai Gold Exchange<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>2<\/sup>&nbsp;The 2021 Chinese New Year holiday began on 11 February and ended on 17 February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>3&nbsp;<\/sup>For more information about premium calculation, please visit our&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.gold.org\/goldhub\/data\/local-gold-price-premiumdiscount\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">local gold price premium\/discount page<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>4&nbsp;<\/sup>For more information, please&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/govt.chinadaily.com.cn\/s\/202102\/19\/WS602f7b24498e7a02c6f689b0\/chinas-consumption-growth-during-2021-spring-festival.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>5&nbsp;<\/sup>Chinese provincial-capital cities and other tier-1 cities\u2019 retail sales accounted for 40% of the total in 2019 according to available data from the&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/english\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Bureau of Statistics<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>6&nbsp;<\/sup>CNY months refer to the months when the CNY holiday occurs. For instance, the 2021 CNY month was February as the holiday started on 11 February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>7&nbsp;<\/sup>Calculation based on the CSI300 stock index\u2019s close on 10 February 2021 and 26 February 2021. The 2021 CNY holiday began on 11 February and ended on 17 February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>8&nbsp;<\/sup>The Spring Lantern Festival occurs on the 15th day after the CNY holiday. In 2021, the Spring Lantern Festival occurred on 26 February. 9 The 2021 CNY holiday began on 11 February and ended on 17 February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Article republished with permission from World Gold Council<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gold.org\/goldhub\/gold-focus\/2021\/03\/chinas-gold-market-february-local-gold-price-premium-rose-further\">https:\/\/www.gold.org\/goldhub\/gold-focus\/2021\/03\/chinas-gold-market-february-local-gold-price-premium-rose-further<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>February summary The LBMA Gold Price AM in US dollars (USD) fell by 4.7% and the Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price PM (SHAUPM) in renminbi (RMB) dropped 4% in the month1 China\u2019s retail consumption rebounded markedly y-o-y during the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday2 While Au(T+D)\u2019s trading volumes tumbled, Chinese gold ETFs gained popularity during the&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4716,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[80,100],"tags":[],"thb-sponsors":[],"class_list":["post-4718","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gold","category-in-focus"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v14.5 - 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