Nov 14, 2016

Hong Kong Retail Sales Drop 4.1% in September, 19th Consecutive Month of Decline

Retail sales across all categories in Hong Kong continued to display negative growth, with the Census & Statistics Dept of the HK government reporting a 4.1% decline in total sales by value and a 3.9% decline in volume terms year-on-year for the month of September 2016. A commentary on the figures, released by the Hong Kong Retail Management Association (HKRMA), notes that sales for the month were provisionally estimated at HK $33.76 billion.

This is the nineteenth consecutive month that monthly sales have shows a year-on-year decline, according to the department. However, this was the smallest monthly decline as compared to the drops in the first eight months of the year, and total sales were marginally above the HK $33.68 billion recorded in June this year.

HKRMA said that the lower rate of decline could be attributed to the slower decline in sales value and volume of "Other consumer durable goods"due to the launch of the new model of mobile phone, as well as the fact that five categories that registered negative sales value in August, including "Wearing Apparel", "Optical Shops", "Medicines and Cosmetics", "Fuels" and "Alcohol Drinks and Tobacco", achieved a positive sales value in September; ranging from 0.4% to 1.8%.

The slowdown continued to affect higher end categories and the sales of jewellery, watches and other valuable gifts decreased by 12.3% in September year-on-year, government figures showed.

For the first nine months of 2016 taken together, the value of total retail sales decreased by 9.6% and by 8.3% in terms of volume year on year, the government statistics indicated.

The retail woes are directly related to a decline in tourist traffic and expenditure – in Septmber, overall visitor numbers were down 3% and visitors from Mainland China, who account for 3/4th of total arrivals, were down 5%. For the first half of the year, tourist spending is estimated to have fallen by 13.6%.

The HK government has officially stated that "the near-term outlook for retail sales is still subject to uncertainty, depending on the performance of inbound tourism as well as the extent to which local consumer sentiment will be affected by various external uncertainties".

The HKRMA noted that though there was an increase in the visitor number for the "Golden Week" in early October, most of its members expected a decline in the sales performance of October due to the bad weather at the end of the month.