Results of an annual pre-season survey  released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics shows that consumer spending this holiday season will go up this year. 

“Consumers say they will spend an average of US$ 1,007.24 during the holiday season this year, up 4.1 per cent from the US$ 967.13 they said they would spend last year,”  the survey stated.

“The holidays are just around the corner and consumers are ready to shop,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Confidence is near an all-time high, unemployment is the lowest we’ve seen in decades and take-home wages are up. All of that is reflected in consumers’ buying plans. Retailers expect strong demand this year, and are prepared with a wide array of merchandise while offering strong deals and promotions during the busiest and most competitive shopping season of the year.”

Although the US imposed tariffs – which took effect last month -- on a wide range of consumer goods from China, Shay noted that retailers imported “record volumes” of merchandise ahead of the tariffs  and said any effect on pricing during the holiday season is expected to be minimal.

Earlier, in October, NRF  had released its  annual holiday spending forecast, “which takes into account a variety of economic factors to project overall spending rather than per-consumer spending”, the organisation said.

“The forecast estimated that holiday retail sales in November and December will be up between 4.3 percent and 4.8 percent over 2017 for a total between US$ 717.45 billion and US$ 720.89 billion,” NRF noted.

Now,  based on  the latest consumer survey, NRF observes buyers will spend in three main categories during the holidays – gifts, at US$ 637.67; non-gift holiday items such as food, decorations, flowers and greeting cards, at US$ 215.04; and other non-gift purchases that take advantage of the deals and promotions throughout the season, at US$ 154.53.

In today’s variegated marketplace it comes as no surprise that holiday shoppers are planning to spread their shopping “across multiple channels and types of stores”.  

“An equal number (55 per cent) will shop online and in department stores while 51 per cent will go to discount stores, 44 per cent to grocery stores, 33 per cent to clothing stores and 24 per cent to electronics stores,” the survey found. “The mix of channels was further evident with 50 per cent of those shopping online saying they will pick up their purchases in-store. Of online shoppers who want the package to come to their home or office, 94 per cent will take advantage of free shipping, 16 per cent will choose expedited shipping and 11 per cent will use same-day delivery.”

While a majority of  holiday shoppers (60 per cent) said they are waiting until at least November to begin “browsing and buying items”,    21 per cent planned to start in October and 18 per cent said they began in September or earlier.

“Of the early shoppers, 61 per cent said they were trying to spread out their budgets while 47 percent wanted to avoid the crowds and stress of last-minute shopping,” the survey found.

Interestingly, while sales and discounts remained the main  factor in choosing a particular retailer, cited by 71 per cent, quality and selection of merchandise were the nextmost important  factor (cited by 60 per cent), followed by free shipping (47 per cent) and convenient location (45 per cent).

“Consumers will be scouring through retailers’ ads to make sure they are getting the best deal possible,” Prosper Insights Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist said. “Although sales will remain an important factor, shoppers want good quality and want to be able to find what they’re looking for.”

When it comes to the wishlist and what consumers were hoping or expecting to receive, gift cards remain the most popular items, topping the list for the 12th year in a row,     requested by 60 percent of those surveyed. This was followed by clothing and accessories at 53 percent; books/movies/music (37 per cent);  electronics (29 per cent), home décor (23 per cent), jewellery (22 per cent);  personal care or beauty items (19 per cent), sporting goods (18 per cent) and home improvement items (17 per cent).

The survey of 7,313 adult consumers was conducted between October 1-11, 2018, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.2 percentage points, NRF noted.