The National Retail Federation (NRF) has said that the retail sales in the US in November 2019 increased 0.1% seasonally adjusted over October; and were up 2.1% unadjusted year-over-year (y-o-y). For NRF, which defines the Holiday Season as the months of November and December, this marks the halfway mark. Hence, the organisation points out, there is “billions of dollars in shopping left to be done”.  (The numbers exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.)

“November showed modest growth on the surface, but you have to remember that the late timing of Thanksgiving delayed the beginning of the busiest portion of the holiday season and pushed Cyber Monday’s billions of dollars of retail sales into December,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz noted. “These numbers are more about the calendar than consumer confidence. Consumer spending has been solid, and there’s still a lot of spending to be done. With strong employment and higher wages, we’re on track for a strong holiday season.”

Kleinhenz went on to say that year-on-year comparison was “challenging” as in November 2018 sales were “unusually strong” – 4.7% over the year before; but December 2018 sales were down 0.2% from the year before. Thus, he felt, it was likely that “next month could show a strong comparison”.

NRF also noted that many consumers began their shopping early this year, with some starting even before November. “NRF surveys showed that 39 percent planned to begin by Halloween, and that consumers, on average, had completed 52 percent of their shopping as of the Thanksgiving Day weekend,” the organisation said.

Earlier, NRF had   forecast that Holiday retail sales during November and December will increase between 3.8% and 4.2%  with a total spend of between US$727.9 billion and US$730.7 billion.

“November’s results build on October’s increase of 0.2 percent month-over-month and a strong 4.1 percent year-over-year,” NRF said. “As of November, the three-month moving average was up 3.3 percent over the same period a year ago, compared with 4.2 percent in October.”

NRF bases its numbers   on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, which, the organisation said, has announced  that overall November sales – including auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants – were up 0.2% seasonally adjusted from October; and up 3.3%  unadjusted y-o-y.

Some notable figures put out by NRF:

•  Online and other non-store sales were up 7.2% year-over-year and up 0.8% month-over-month seasonally adjusted.

•  General merchandise stores were unchanged year-over-year but up 0.1% month-over-month seasonally adjusted.

• Electronics and appliance stores were down 1.7% year-over-year but up 0.7% month-over-month seasonally adjusted.

• Health and personal care stores were also down 1.7% year-over-year and were down 1.1% month-over-month seasonally adjusted.

• Clothing and clothing accessory stores were down 2.9% year-over-year and down 0.6 % month-over-month seasonally adjusted.