Deloitte’s retail and distribution practice said that it expects total US holiday sales to climb to between $981 and $986 billion, representing a 4 per cent to 4.5 percent increase in November through January holiday sales (excluding motor vehicles and gasoline) over last season. This growth rate is a moderate improvement over last year’s 2.8 percent gain. Additionally, Deloitte forecasts a 13.5 per cent to 14 percent increase in non-store sales in the online and mail order  channels during the 2014 holiday season, the consultancy noted. 

Deloitte attributes the  steadily improving economic fundamentals as the reason for this improvement in sales.

“Income, wage and job growth are positive indicators heading into the holiday season,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s senior U.S. economist. “Debt levels remain at historical lows, and stock market gains coupled with increasing home prices have a wealth effect on consumers, which may encourage increased spending compared with prior years. Although consumers are watching tensions unfold in the Middle East and Ukraine, the improvement in their economic situation should more than offset the foreign conflicts’ impact on consumer confidence and retail sales. Despite recent events in energy-producing areas of the world, gas prices have held steady, which may also sustain consumers’ spending power.”

“While online sales continue to climb, digital customer interactions through both virtual and physical store channels present greater sales opportunities than online or mobile commerce alone,” said Alison Paul, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP and retail and distribution sector leader. “Our research indicates that 84 per cent of shoppers use digital tools before and during their trip to a store. Additionally, those shoppers convert, or make a purchase, at a 40 per cent higher rate than those who do not use such devices during their shopping journey.”

Deloitte forecasts that digital interactions will influence 50 percent, or $345 billion, of retail stores sales this holiday season. This figure reflects the extent to which consumers’ use of desktop and laptop computers, tablets, and smartphones influence brick-and-mortar store sales.