The National Retail Federation (NRF) is forecasting a jolly holiday season for retailers, with consumer spending expected to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% compared to 2023. This translates to a total of $979.5 billion to $989 billion spent in November and December, a significant increase from last year’s $955.6 billion. The holiday season is defined as 1st November through 31st December.
“The economy remains fundamentally healthy and continues to maintain its momentum heading into the final months of the year,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “The winter holidays are an important tradition to American families, and their capacity to spend will continue to be supported by a strong job market and wage growth.”
The NRF’s forecast aligns with their broader prediction of a 2.5% to 3.5% growth in annual retail sales for 2024. Online shopping is expected to be a major driver of this growth, with online and non-store sales projected to rise between 8% and 9%, reaching a total of $295.1 billion to $297.9 billion. This is a significant jump from $273.3 billion in 2023.
“We remain optimistic about the pace of economic activity and growth projected in the second half of the year,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Household finances are in good shape and an impetus for strong spending heading into the holiday season, though households will spend more cautiously.”
To meet the anticipated surge in demand, retailers are expected to hire between 400,000 and 500,000 seasonal workers this year. This is slightly less than the 509,000 hired in 2023, with some positions potentially filled earlier in October to support holiday buying events.