De Beers will reportedly be overhauling its third-party distributed diamond brand Forevermark over the next two years. According to a letter sent to distributors and seen by the trade, Forevermark will be restructured exclusively as a diamond jewellery brand – marking a move away from branded loose diamonds.
But that’s not all. The new structure of the brand (at least at first) will only be available in India, which the company noted holds the greatest “commercial potential” for the new iteration. This means Forvermark will no longer be distributed in the US and China, the diamond industry’s two largest markets by sales.
Forevermark, a natural diamond proxy, has consistently outperformed in India with double-digit sales growth reported in each of the last three years. Even during what was an especially difficult year for the diamond trade in 2023, Forevermark India sales notably grew 15-20%, driven by strength in the ever important festive and wedding season.
During an exclusive interview with Solitaire in January, Amit Pratihari, VP of Forevermark India, forecasted that the Indian natural diamond jewellery market could grow by 150% to $18 billion by early next decade. Pratihari noted that India remains a “bright spot” for the larger industry, predicting that with positive demand fundamentals “sales will only increase” in India.
Titan Company, India’s largest jewellery conglomerate, has shown a similar trend. The parent of jewellery brands Tanishq, CaratLane and Zoya, grew company-wide sales 32% in the fiscal year ended March 2022 and 41% in the following. While the company has not yet released full year fiscal 2024 figures, based on quarterly reports, Titan appears to be on pace for another year of 20%-plus growth.
“Diamonds are a swiftly growing category in India – and, as such, India is now estimated to be the fastest growing large market for diamond jewellery in the world (as the U.S. is mature and China is facing a structural slowdown).”
During an analyst call in February, Titan management said that “(Indian) customers are already buying gold jewellery…but when it comes to studded (jewellery) in the sub Rs. 50,000 (sub-$600 range), it’s a case of market expansion…that segment is getting created as we go,” adding “as India becomes more affluent, the aspect of diamond jewellery (will be) in our favour.”
For context, Titan generated approximately $4 billion in net jewelry sales (excluding watches, eye ware and bullion) in the fiscal year ended March 2023, which the company estimates to represent a 7% share of the total “Indian jewelry market.” This implies an Indian jewelry market worth some $55 billion (which counts for about 15-20% of global sales).
In India, gold jewellery still represents the bulk of sales, with the contribution from diamonds estimated at around 10-15% of total value sold. That said, diamonds are a swiftly growing category in India – and, as such, India is now estimated to be the fastest growing large market for diamond jewellery in the world (as the U.S. is mature and China is facing a structural slowdown).
On a more macro level, India is forecast to be the world’s only large economy growing in excess of 5% this year. Indian stocks, as measured by the CNX “Nifty” 100, are currently trading at an all-time high, up a bullish 35% over the last 52-weeks. In calendar Q1, 2024, initial public offerings in India were up a massive 12x in value raised year-over-year.
Paul Zimnisky, CFA is an independent diamond industry analyst and consultant based in the New York metro area. For regular in-depth analysis and forecasts of the diamond industry please consider subscribing to his State of the Diamond Market, a leading monthly industry report; an index of previous editions can be found here. Also, listen to the Paul Zimnisky Diamond Analytics Podcast on iTunes or Spotify for exclusive full-length conversations with special guests from the gem and jewelry industry. Paul is a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business with a B.S. in finance and he is a CFA charterholder. He can be reached at paul@paulzimnisky.com and followed on X @paulzimnisky.
Disclosure: At the time of writing Paul Zimnisky held a long equity position in Lucara Diamond Corp, Brilliant Earth Group, Star Diamond Corp and Newmont Corp. Paul is an independent board member of Lipari Diamond Mines, a privately-held Canadian company with a kimberlite mine in Brazil and a development-stage asset in Angola. Please read full disclosure at www.paulzimnisky.com.
