The World Gold Council’s latest outlook projects a mixed 2026 for gold after a standout 2025 that delivered more than 50 record highs and a 60% jump. This year’s surge was fuelled by geopolitical tension, a weaker US dollar, and strong investment and central bank buying.
For 2026, analysts expect gold to move within a narrow band if current macro conditions hold. A mild global slowdown, softer labour markets, and deeper Fed rate cuts could lift prices by 5% to 15%. A sharper downturn driven by rising geopolitical or trade tensions could push gains to 15% to 30%.
A stronger US economy would pull prices the other way. If growth accelerates under new US policies, higher yields and a firmer dollar could drag gold down 5% to 20%.
Central bank purchases and recycling trends remain key wildcards. Emerging market reserves still lag advanced economies, signalling continued appetite for official sector buying. At the same time, India’s rising use of gold as loan collateral has kept recycling flows muted, though a severe slowdown could reverse that trend.
With tail-risk events becoming more frequent, the World Gold Council says gold will continue to hold its place as a diversifier in portfolios navigating an unpredictable global landscape.