Speaking virtually at the Bharat Diamond Bourse (BDB) Symposium on 24th September 2025, senior Chinese industry strategist Liang Weizhang, CEO of HubWis Jewellery Strategic Creations (Guangzhou) Co., Ltd. delivered a comprehensive overview of the shifting dynamics in China’s diamond and jewellery sector. With nearly three decades of experience and long-standing ties with the Indian trade, Liang’s address, titled “Changing Business Landscape: What Does the Future Hold?”, highlighted both the challenges of recent years and the cautious optimism now emerging.
China’s Jewellery Market Resilience
Liang began by noting that China’s jewellery market has shown remarkable resilience despite economic headwinds. Data from the Gems and Jewellery Trade Association of China showed the overall market size expanding from RMB 720 billion (approx. USD 100 billion) in 2021 to RMB 820 billion (USD 114 billion) in 2023, before easing slightly to RMB 780 billion (USD 109 billion) in 2024.
A key trend is the growing dominance of gold jewellery. Gold’s share of retail sales rose from 58% in 2021 to 73% in 2024, while diamonds shrank from 14% to just 6% in the same period. Liang attributed this to three factors: gold’s strong price performance, household preference for safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty, and innovative designs that have drawn younger buyers.
“Gold’s dual role as adornment and investment has clearly elevated its importance,” Liang remarked. “By contrast, diamonds have faced structural headwinds.”
Diamond Market Contraction
The natural diamond market in China contracted sharply between 2021 and 2024, falling from RMB 100 billion to RMB 43 billion (USD 6 billion). Imports of gem-quality diamonds plunged 73% by volume and 83% by value over the same period.
The reasons, Liang explained, are manifold: excess inventories, weaker consumer sentiment, declining marriage rates, and competition from lab-grown diamonds. Marriage registrations fell to 6.1 million in 2024, a 20.5% drop from 2023, eroding a traditional pillar of diamond demand.
“Fewer weddings mean fewer milestone purchases like engagement rings,” Liang said. “This demographic shift has long-term implications for diamond consumption.”
Signs of Recovery in 2025
Despite the downturn, Liang pointed to signs of a rebound in 2025. In the first half of the year, jewellery retail sales in China rose 11% year-on-year. Polished diamond imports surged 43.5% between January and July, with June and July witnessing triple-digit growth in both volume and value.
This surge, Liang noted, reflected two factors: inventories finally being worked down and selective restocking by retailers. Prices for certain specifications of natural diamonds also stabilised after steep declines in 2024.
“After three years of contraction, we now see retailers cautiously re-entering the market,” Liang observed. “The adjustment phase may be behind us.”
Hong Kong Market Dynamics
Turning to Hong Kong, Liang described it as a vital international hub for diamond trade. While retail sales of jewellery, watches, and valuable gifts fell 6.3% year on year in the first half of 2025, June brought a 6.8% rebound, signalling renewed momentum.
“Hong Kong’s trajectory typically mirrors broader global shifts, but with a lag,” Liang said. “The June uptick suggests recovery in high-end spending is underway.”
Lab-Grown Diamonds: Growth and Perceptions
Liang also addressed the rapid growth of lab-grown diamonds (LGDs). Imports of non-industrial LGDs into China have been rising steadily, while prices have fallen sharply. Hong Kong, too, has become an active trading hub.
Yet consumer perceptions remain strongly in favour of natural diamonds. A 2023 Chow Tai Fook survey found that 57% of mainland Chinese and 86% of Hong Kong respondents preferred natural diamonds, citing greater value, luxury, and investment potential.
“Lab-grown diamonds are growing fast, but they have not displaced the prestige of natural diamonds in consumers’ minds,” Liang emphasised. “For most, the emotional and symbolic value of natural remains unmatched.”
Have We Reached the Bottom?
Addressing the question on everyone’s mind, Liang reviewed price trends. In 2024 and early 2025, many diamond categories saw price declines of 20–30%. But in the six months leading to September 2025, most categories stabilised, with only modest single-digit declines remaining.
Liang credited this to supply-side adjustments. Producers cut rough diamond output, traders rebalanced inventories, and consumers began accepting new price levels. “We may not see a sharp V-shaped rebound,” he cautioned. “Recovery is more likely to be gradual, shaped like a U.”
Outlook: Challenges and Opportunities
Looking ahead, Liang outlined both short-term and long-term factors. In the near term, recovery will depend on the pace of inventory clearance, wedding-related demand, and how natural and lab-grown diamonds coexist in the market. Long term, tightening global supply and the expansion of China’s middle class provide a solid foundation for growth.
However, Liang also warned of tariff uncertainties disrupting trade flows. With the US market unpredictable, Chinese and Indian merchants may increasingly find themselves competing in the same international arenas.
“The question,” Liang posed, “is whether we compete head-on, or find differentiated strategies that allow both sides to thrive.”
Conclusion
Liang closed by urging collaboration and foresight. “Navigating tariffs and shifting consumer behaviour requires adaptability,” he said. “But with China and India as two pillars of the global jewellery industry, our shared resilience and innovation will shape the future.”
His message to Indian counterparts was clear: though the industry faces volatility, the fundamentals for natural diamonds remain intact, and opportunities lie in embracing change while forging deeper global partnerships.