Silver’s sharp rise, far outpacing gold in percentage terms, has turned 2025 into one of the most dramatic chapters in the white metal’s modern market story, writes bullion analyst Sanjiv Arole.
Gukesh Dommaraju became the youngest FIDE World Chess champion (classical) in December 2024. However, since then he has found the going tough with hardly any wins and no titles. Probably, realising the old saying that it is much easier to reach the top but difficult to stay there. Gold does not appear to have much of a problem staying at the top as it has repeatedly breeched the fresh all-time high in 2025 itself, with latest all-time record of $4,381.58 per ounce scaled in October 2025.
On the other hand, silver too scaled $50 per ounce for the first time since 1980 in the same month and even a new all-time high of $54.48 per ounce on 17th October 2025. However, since then both gold and silver have been struggling to prevent the prices from sliding too far below their respective all-time high levels. In fact, gold is currently (on the morning of 28th November in Mumbai) around 4.6% lower than its peak level, while silver is approximately 1.3% down. Moreover, while gold often grabs all the headlines, silver is often the unsung hero.
Consider the following: Gold has risen by over 65% from the beginning of the year till its all-time high of $4,381.58 per ounce scaled in October 2025, around 58% as of November 28, 2025 morning (IST). Silver has soared by over 84% from the start of year to its new all-time high of $54.48 per ounce on October 17, 2025, around 82% as of November 28, 2025. Gold and silver have a strange relationship as silver often jumps higher and even declines more sharply. A bizarre comparison could be made between the US and Indian economies. For, while India often boasts of being the fastest growing large economy, the US is the largest economy in the world. India is nowhere near the US economy in real terms. Likewise, silver may outrun gold in percentage terms, but in reality it is still around 77-80 times cheaper than gold.
Silver’s record price run in the current year from around $29.405 per ounce to its peak of $54.48 per ounce just last month deserves more than applause. What are fundamentals of silver, the red flags, and its medium to longer term future and price outlook?
The Silver Institute recently released a report on silver during their annual industry dinner in New York. Metal Focus, the London-based outfit made the presentation. The salient features are as follows: The silver price hit a record high price of $54.48 per ounce on October 17, 2025. Despite falling below the $50 per ounce mark and sliding towards $47 per ounce, silver is still back in the reckoning around $53.76 per ounce currently, a sign of the underlying strength of silver in the market. The gold: silver ratio is now hovering around 77-80 after its peak of 107 for the year in April 2025, indicating increased institutional investor confidence in silver. Investor concerns are over stagflation, the US Feds independence, US government’s debt sustainability, USD’s role as a safe haven, and geopolitical risks. Silver’s spectacular price run saw holdings in exchange traded products rise by 18% from year to date (early November 2025) to 187 Moz. Global silver demand is expected to decline by 4% year over year (y/y) to 1.12 billion ounces in 2025. All major areas of silver demand are on course to post losses led by industrial, jewellery, bar and coin demand. Industrial demand is set to decline by 2% in 2025 to 665 Moz. Silver jewellery and silverware are expected to decline by 4% and 11%, respectively in 2025. Bar and coin demand to is predicted to fall by 4% to a seven year low of 182 Moz in 2025. While US investors have liquidated their bars and coins, in contrast, Indian investors have bought into rising prices, in anticipation of higher prices towards the end of 2025 as well. Recycling is expected to rise by 1% but it still is at a 13-year high. Overall, 2025 will still see a fifth successive deficit, albeit lower, but still a sizeable 95 Moz, a cumulative deficit of 820 Moz for the 2021-2025 period. In part, explaining the market tightness this year.
In short, it has been a dramatic year for silver so far in 2025, with record prices, an unprecedented liquidity squeeze resulting in record high lease rates, high volumes being delivered into CME vaults as a reflection of tariff concerns in the US, and silver’s official designation as a critical mineral by the US government. All the above developments coincided with heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, including US trade policies, prompted investors to diversify their portfolio with increased allocation to precious metals. As a result, investment demand, particularly in exchange traded funds, strengthened noticeably, comfortably overcoming the weakness in all key areas of silver demand.
Meanwhile, a recent report from Reuters suggests that because of the very high silver prices there are efforts being aggressively pursued to reduce use of silver in solar cells in favour of aluminium, copper or nickel. It seems that the pressure on PV (Photo-Voltaic) industry to reduce silver is currently is very high due to the enormous price level boost of silver. Even though in the past there was apprehension that cutting silver too excessively could harm module performance, there is a rethink that if silver reduction was carefully managed with proper design and process control it does not have to compromise the quality of solar cells and modules.
Investors the world over have flocked silver ETFs even as the silver price rose to fresh highs beyond $50 per ounce and the buying interest declined once the price fell below $50 per ounce and slumped towards $47 per ounce briefly. Likewise, in India there was no selling pressure even when silver soared beyond Rs.1, 50,000 per kg, instead investors they held on anticipating higher silver prices and bought physical silver at dips.
Elsewhere, SEBI issued a flyer warning investors of exercising caution while buying digital gold as it was not a regulated form of investment. Perhaps, for the first time a trade responded to this warning from SEBI and announced a decision of the Digital Gold traders to form their own `Self-Regulatory Organisation’
Finally, whether gold and silver regain touch with their all-time high levels again or if they consolidate their positions would depend mainly on a few more rate cuts by the US fed. The state of the weakening USD, uncertainty over US trade deals with China, India, EU, Canada, etc. as the US blows hot and cold, recessionary fears in the US, inflation and labour market data, geo-political tensions over Israel-Hamas and the Ukraine war even now would determine the future of rate cuts. However, with his saying that the December rate cut was not a forgone conclusion and it is now clear that the governors are divided on the vexed issue of interest rate in December, Jerome Powell, the Fed chief, still holds the trump cards!
Renewed hopes of interest rate cuts by the US Fed in December and into 2026 saw silver surge by over 5.8% to a new all-time high of $56.57 per ounce on Friday, 28th November 2025. It also pushed gold up as well. Silver was up by over 92% from the beginning of the year. It would seem that this is a train that won’t stop!
Latest Update:
Silver went up to $57.90 per ounce, reaching a fresh all-time high early Monday morning on 1st December in Asia, almost 97% up from the start of 2025.