Diamond analyst Paul Zimnisky predicts that diamonds have a bright future in the robust Indian consumer market.
During a recent investor event, India’s Titan said it is aiming to grow its “flagship jewellery business” by 2.5-times over the next five years.
For context, the Indian “lifestyle” conglomerate generated ₹27,456 crores ($3.5 billion) in sales last year – jewellery represented 88% of that, followed by watches at 9% and eyewear plus perfume and cosmetics at 3%.
Plans include doubling the number of jewellery stores to ~1,200 by early 2025. For example, management plans to grow Mia, the company’s fastest growing mid-market banner, to 550 stores, from 275 currently. However, the expansion strategy also includes the company’s other banners such as Tanishq, CaratLane and Zoya.
At the event, management said that it sees “huge headroom in a geographically fragmented market,” as the company currently holds just a 6% share of the estimated $50+ billion Indian jewellery market.
While the growth plan primarily targets domestic expansion “across 300 cities,” management also said that it sees international potential, specifically in North America and West Asia – noting that “(there is an) affinity for Indian tradition and culture… (and it’s an) under-served category.”
India, and its population of 1.4 billion people, currently represents 15-20% of global jewellery demand, excluding bullion, and 5-10% of global diamond jewellery demand specifically, according to Paul Zimnisky estimates.
Notably, diamonds are expected to play larger a role is India’s consumer market going forward. Zimnisky estimates that at current growth rates, India and China combined could outpace the US in terms of global diamond jewellery sales by next decade – including both natural and man-made stones.
At present, the US and its population of 330 million represents about 50% of global diamond jewellery sales; China and its 1.4 billion people is second at just under 20% (See more: “Greater China Jewellers’ Rapid Expansion Accelerates”).
Historically gold has represented the bulk of jewellery sales in India as Shashikanth Dalichand Shah, of India’s Lab Grown Diamond & Jewellery Promotion Council, recently noted to Business Insider India: “every Indian woman, living in a hut or a bungalow, owns at least 1 gram (of gold).”
Whereas Paul Zimnisky estimates that only a single-digit percentage of Indians own a diamond.
However, in August, Ghanshyam Dholakia of Hari Krishna, one of the world’s largest diamond and jewellery midstream companies, told industry website Rough & Polished that “Millennials (in India) now prefer diamond jewellery over gold.”
Accordingly, De Beers said that in 2021, the company’s end-consumer diamond sales in India were up 15% relative to 2019, the pre-pandemic proxy – marking a new record for the company. De Beers representatives have said that they believe double-digit growth in India is sustainable well into the future – which would likely healthily outpace the larger (global) industry, according to Paul Zimnisky forecasts.
Within the last year, De Beers’ Sachin Jain said, “(in India) people want to invest in luxurious products but ones that hold value… (and we see great demand from the younger generation as they prefer jewellery to complement their personality and define their individual style statement… besides this, we see demand for minimalistic and everyday wear diamonds as the sentiment has now shifted towards wearing diamonds for any occasion.”
Paul Zimnisky, CFA is an independent diamond industry analyst and consultant based in the New York metro area. For regular in-depth analysis of the diamond industry please consider subscribing to his State of the Diamond Market, a leading monthly industry report; an index of previous editions can be found here. Also, listen to the Paul Zimnisky Diamond Analytics Podcast on iTunes or Spotify. Paul is a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business with a B.S. in finance and he is a CFA charterholder. He can be reached at paul@paulzimnisky.com and followed on Twitter @paulzimnisky.
Disclosure: At the time of writing Paul Zimnisky held a long position in Lucara Diamond Corp, Star Diamond Corp, North Arrow Minerals Inc, Brilliant Earth Group and Barrick Gold Corp. Please read full disclosure at www.paulzimnisky.com.
