US retail sales recorded solid year-on-year growth in November, pointing to a steady start to the 2025 holiday season, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor powered by Affinity Solutions. Total retail sales excluding autos and fuel rose 4.53% year on year, while core sales grew 4.66%. Month-on-month growth was largely flat, partly due to a late Thanksgiving pushing promotions into December.
NRF said the data supports its forecast of holiday sales rising 3.7% to 4.2%, taking seasonal spending beyond $1 trillion for the first time.
Momentum is expected to build on Super Saturday, with 158.9 million consumers planning to shop on the final Saturday before Christmas, a new record. Nearly half plan to shop both online and in-store, with clothing, toys and gift cards leading purchases. Experience-based gifts continue to gain ground, while 70% of consumers expect to shop again after Christmas to use gift cards and capture post-holiday deals.