NRF: US Economy Slowing, But Near-term Recession Unlikely

The US economy’s rate of growth is slowing, but consumers remain financially healthy and the nation is unlikely to enter into a recession during the remainder of 2022, National Retail Federation (NRF) Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said.

“I am not betting on an official recession in the near term, but the most recent research pegs the risk over the next year as about one in three and it will be touch and go in 2023,” Kleinhenz said. “In the meantime, a contracting economy short of a recession is not out of the question.”

“Regardless of the prospect of a downturn or whether it will meet the threshold of a recession, the consumer outlook over the next few months remains favourable,” Kleinhenz said. “The economy is moving away from extremely strong growth toward moderate growth, but increased income from employment gains, rising wages and more hours worked is expected to support household spending. Policy issues will likely be the deciding factor shaping the economic outlook this year and next.”

Kleinhenz’s remarks came in the July issue of NRF’s Monthly Economic Review, which said economic data is “softer than a few months ago” but “still signals further solid economic growth.”

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