Retail sales in the US extended their growth streak in March, supported by higher tax refunds that helped offset rising gasoline prices linked to the Middle East conflict, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor released by the National Retail Federation.
“Retail sales grew for a sixth consecutive month in March as the first wave of tax refunds offset higher gas prices,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay, noting that consumers continued spending on essentials despite weak sentiment and elevated inflation.
Total retail sales, excluding auto dealers and fuel stations, rose 0.4% month-on-month (seasonally adjusted) and 6.59% year-on-year in March, improving from February’s 0.28% monthly and 6.24% annual growth.
Core retail sales, which also exclude restaurants, increased 0.41% month-on-month and 7.05% year-on-year, compared with 0.27% and 5.87% respectively in February. For the first quarter, total retail sales were up 6.18% year-on-year, while core sales grew 6.14%.
The gains coincided with higher consumer liquidity, as the Internal Revenue Service reported average tax refunds of $3,521 as of late March, up 11.1% from 2025 following recent tax law changes.
The Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, uses anonymised credit and debit card transaction data rather than survey-based estimates, reducing the need for revisions.