US retail sales during 2021’s November-December holiday season grew 14.1% over 2020 to $886.7 billion, easily beating the National Retail Federation’s (NRF’s) forecast and setting a new record despite challenges from inflation, supply chain disruptions and the ongoing pandemic, NRF said. The number includes online and other non-store sales, which were up 11.3% at $218.9 billion. The numbers exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail.
“We closed out the year with outstanding annual retail sales and a record holiday season, which is a clear testament to the power of the consumer and the ingenuity of retailers and their workers,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Despite supply chain problems, rising inflation, labour shortages and the omicron variant, retailers delivered a positive holiday experience to pandemic-fatigued consumers and their families. Consumers were backed by strong wages and record savings and began their shopping earlier this year than ever before. This is, in part, why we saw a decline in sales from November to December.
Both the amount spent and the growth rate are new highs, topping the previous records of $777.3 billion spent in 2020 and 8.2% growth that year. NRF forecast in October that 2021 holiday sales would increase between 8.5% and 10.5% over 2020 to between $843.4 billion and $859 billion, then said in December that growth could be as much as 11.5%. The 2021 growth compares with an average 4.4% holiday sales growth over the previous five years.
Online spending met NRF’s forecast, which called for growth of between 11% and 15% to between $218.3 billion and $226.2 billion. “Retail sales displayed solid momentum throughout the holiday season,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Worries about inflation and Covid-19 put pressure on consumer attitudes but did not dampen spending, and sales were remarkably strong. Even though many consumers began shopping in October, this was the strongest November and December we’ve ever seen. Despite supply chain challenges, retailers kept their shelves stocked and consumers were able to fill their carts both in-store and online. Holiday spending during 2021 reflected continued consumer demand that is driving the economy and should continue in 2022. Nonetheless, we should be prepared for challenges in the coming months due to the substantial uncertainty brought by the pandemic.”