Holiday spending in the US is expected to be healthy even with recent inflationary challenges, as the National Retail Federation (NRF) forecast that holiday retail sales during November and December will grow between 6% and 8% over 2021 to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.
Last year’s US holiday sales grew 13.5% over 2020 and totalled $889.3 billion, shattering previous records. Holiday retail sales have averaged an increase of 4.9% over the past 10 years, with pandemic spending in recent years accounting for considerable gains.
Matthew Shay, President and CEO, NRF, said, “While consumers are feeling the pressure of inflation and higher prices, and while there is continued stratification with consumer spending and behaviour among households at different income levels, consumers remain resilient and continue to engage in commerce. In the face of these challenges, many households will supplement spending with savings and credit to provide a cushion and result in a positive holiday season.”
NRF expects that online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, to increase between 10% and 12% to between $262.8 billion and $267.6 billion. This figure is up from $238.9 billion last year, which saw extraordinary growth in digital channels as consumers turned to online shopping to meet their holiday needs during the pandemic. While ecommerce will remain important, households are also expected to shift back to in-store shopping and a more traditional holiday shopping experience.
Jack Kleinhenz, Chief Economist, NRF, said, “This holiday season cycle is anything but typical. NRF’s holiday forecast takes a number of factors into consideration, but the overall outlook is generally positive as consumer fundamentals continue to support economic activity. Despite record levels of inflation, rising interest rates and low levels of confidence, consumers have been steadfast in their spending and remain in the driver’s seat.”
NRF’s holiday forecast is in line with the organisation’s full year forecast for retail sales, which predicted retail sales will grow between 6% and 8% to more than $4.86 trillion in 2022.