Holiday spending in the US is expected to reach record levels from 1st November and 31st December 2023 and will grow between 3% and 4% over 2022 to between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion, the National Retail Federation (NRF) has forecast.
The survey notes that jewellery is among the top gifts that consumers wish to receive this holiday season. Desirability for jewellery has been steadily increasing, with 23% of surveyed consumers wanting jewellery in 2023, 21% in 2022, and 20% in 2021.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said “It is not surprising to see holiday sales growth returning to pre-pandemic levels. Overall household finances remain in good shape and will continue to support the consumer’s ability to spend.”
Despite a slower growth rate compared with the past three years, when trillions of dollars of stimulus led to unprecedented rates of retail spending during the pandemic, this year’s holiday spending is consistent with the average annual holiday increase of 3.6% from 2010 to 2019.
Online shopping has been one of the biggest shifts in consumer behaviour from the Covid-19 pandemic. Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 7% and 9% to a total of between $273.7 billion and $278.8 billion. That figure is up from $255.8 billion last year.
“Consumers remain in the driver’s seat, and are resilient despite headwinds of inflation, higher gas prices, stringent credit conditions and elevated interest rates,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “We expect spending to continue through the end of the year on a range of items and experiences, but at a slower pace. Solid job and wage growth will be contributing factors this holiday season, and consumers will be looking for deals and discounts to stretch their dollars.”