US Holiday retail sales are likely to increase between 4% and 6% in 2022, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast. Overall, Deloitte’s retail and consumer products division projects holiday sales will total $1.45 to $1.47 trillion during the November to January timeframe. In 2021, holiday sales grew by 15.1% in the same period.
Deloitte also forecasts e-commerce sales will grow by 12.8% to 14.3%, year-over-year, during the 2022-2023 holiday season. This will likely result in e-commerce holiday sales reaching between $260 billion and $264 billion this season.
“The lower projected growth for the 2022 holiday season reflects the slowdown in the economy this year. Retail sales are likely to be further affected by declining demand for durable consumer goods, which had been the centrepiece of pandemic spending. However, we anticipate more spending on consumer services, such as restaurants, as the effects of the pandemic continue to wane,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. Economic Forecaster. He added, “inflation will also help to raise dollar sales, although retailers will see less growth in sales volume.” Nick Handrinos, Vice Chair, Deloitte LLP, and U.S. Retail, Wholesale & Distribution & Consumer Products Leader, said, “Retail sales are set to increase as a result of higher prices, and this dynamic has the potential to further drive e-commerce sales as consumers look for online deals to maximise their spending. Retailers across channels who remain aligned with consumer demand and offer convenient and affordable options can be well positioned for success this season.”